After running a plenty of simulation and tweaking numbers I am quite happy with the outputs that the engine generates now. I have moved from generic tests to making some actual teams based on the county teams. The way teams are read into the program has been altered. Now there are two files, one which holds the full roster/panel for a team and the other which names the team to actually play the game. The former holds the ratings for each player and eventually stats when they get stored. The latter simply states the number, position and name of the player with the tactic and free taker at the top.
Sample roster and teamsheet
Two changes to the calculations behind the scenes were the addition of Home Bonus and greater emphasis on passing. In most sports there is some home field advantage and this is no different. The first team is designated as the Home team and they get a bonus to their total probability of having an event. The passing is based on the midfield stat of players. It was always factored into the total but now the total takes in double the midfield rating. This is to factor in that a better midfield and passing team would have more possession of the ball. This change has improved numbers a lot I feel and makes sense logically too.
Below I have pasted in a game I simulated today for the Hurling League Final between Kilkenny and Tipperary. It turned into a great game and shows off what a full game simulated is like.
MIN 0) Michael Fennelly finds himself unmarked and slots the ball between the posts.
0-1 TO 0-0
MIN 1) Eoin Murphy misses the catch but Cillian Buckley helps him out and scores a point from the loose ball.
0-2 TO 0-0
MIN 2) Cillian Buckley finds himself unmarked and slots the ball between the posts.
0-3 TO 0-0
MIN 5) Cillian Buckley is dragged down and Eoin Larkin converts the free.
0-4 TO 0-0
MIN 6) Noel McGrath finds himself unmarked and slots the ball between the posts.
0-4 TO 0-1
MIN) 9 Shane McGrath is about to shoot but JJ Delaney gets in the way and makes the block.
MIN) 12 JJ Delaney makes a great block stopping a sure point.
MIN 14) The ball is sent over the bar by Lar Corbett.
0-4 TO 0-2
MIN) 17 Aidan Fogarty is about to shoot but Paul Curran gets in the way and makes the block.
MIN 18) Seamus Callanan finds himself unmarked and slots the ball between the posts.
0-4 TO 0-3
MIN 19) Cillian Buckley catches the pass from Jackie Tyrrell, gets past his man and adds another point.
0-5 TO 0-3
MIN 21) Richie Hogan catches the pass from Colin Fennelly, gets past his man and adds another point.
0-6 TO 0-3
MIN 22) A good passing move ends with Lar Corbett and he scores a point for the team.
0-6 TO 0-4
MIN 23) And its a point from Cillian Buckley.
0-7 TO 0-4
MIN 24) Richie Hogan takes his point.
0-8 TO 0-4
MIN 25) Eoin Kelly scores a free from a tough angle.
0-8 TO 0-5
MIN 26) The loose ball is picked up by Shane McGrath who picks out Lar Corbett and its stuck over the bar.
0-8 TO 0-6
MIN 27) Richie Hogan makes a great catch and scores a point on the turn.
0-9 TO 0-6
MIN 32) A good passing move ends with Patrick Maher and he scores a point for the team.
0-9 TO 0-7
MIN 34) Michael Fennelly took a nasty blow across his arm but Eoin Larkin scores the free.
0-10 TO 0-7
HALF TIME SCORE: 0-10 TO 0-7
MIN 37) The loose ball is picked up by Conor O'Mahony who picks out Noel McGrath and its stuck over the bar.
0-10 TO 0-8
MIN 38) A loose sliotar is picked up by Shane Bourke and he puts it over the bar.
0-10 TO 0-9
MIN 39) The loose ball is picked up by Seamus Callanan who picks out Shane Bourke and its stuck over the bar.
0-10 TO 0-10
MIN) 41 A close call but Brendan Maher clears the ball away.
MIN 43) A soft free is given by the ref and Eoin Kelly scores it.
0-10 TO 0-11
MIN 44) The ref blows his whistle and Eoin Kelly scores the free from the 65.
0-10 TO 0-12
MIN 45) Conor O'Brien won the ball from his man and set up Shane Bourke for the good score.
0-10 TO 0-13
MIN 46) Lester Ryan won the ball from his man and set up Michael Fennelly for the good score.
0-11 TO 0-13
MIN 48) A soft free is given by the ref and Eoin Larkin scores it.
0-12 TO 0-13
MIN 49) Eoin Larkin makes a great catch and scores a point on the turn.
0-13 TO 0-13
MIN 50) A good passing move ends with Colin Fennelly and he scores a point for the team.
0-14 TO 0-13
MIN) 52 A clearance is caught by JJ Delaney and he sends it right back.
MIN 54) Brendan Maher passes the ball to Lar Corbett and its hit between the posts.
0-14 TO 0-14
MIN 55) Michael Rice takes his point and the goals will come.
0-15 TO 0-14
MIN 56) A soft free is given by the ref and Eoin Kelly scores it.
0-15 TO 0-15
MIN 60) Somehow Lester Ryan comes out with the ball and scores a nice point.
0-16 TO 0-15
MIN 62) A good passing move ends with Brendan Maher and he scores a point for the team.
0-16 TO 0-16
MIN 63) Patrick Maher makes a great catch and scores a point on the turn.
0-16 TO 0-17
MIN 64) The loose ball is picked up by Padriac Maher who picks out Seamus Callanan and its stuck over the bar.
0-16 TO 0-18
MIN 65) Paul Murphy passes the ball to Cillian Buckley and its hit between the posts.
0-17 TO 0-18
MIN) 66 A clearance is caught by Cillian Buckley and he sends it right back.
MIN 67) Darren Gleeson hits the ball to the unmarked Noel McGrath on the sideline, who sends it over the bar.
0-17 TO 0-19
MIN 70) The ball is picked up by the sideline by Michael Rice he solos past two men and hits it past the goalie.
1-17 TO 0-19
FINAL SCORE: 1-17 TO 0-19
1 Eoin Murphy: 0-0
2 Paul Murphy: 0-0
3 JJ Delaney: 0-0
4 Jackie Tyrrell: 0-0
5 Tommy Walsh: 0-0
6 Brian Hogan: 0-0
7 Kieran Joyce: 0-0
8 Lester Ryan: 0-1
9 Michael Fennelly: 0-2
10 Cillian Buckley: 0-5
11 Michael Rice: 1-1
12 Eoin Larkin: 0-4
13 Colin Fennelly: 0-1
14 Richie Hogan: 0-3
15 Aidan Fogarty: 0-0
1 Darren Gleeson: 0-0
2 Michael Cahill: 0-0
3 Conor O'Mahony: 0-0
4 Paul Curran: 0-0
5 Kieran Bergin: 0-0
6 Padriac Maher: 0-0
7 Conor O'Brien: 0-0
8 Brendan Maher: 0-1
9 Shane McGrath: 0-0
10 Eoin Kelly: 0-4
11 Lar Corbett: 0-4
12 Patrick Maher: 0-2
13 Shane Bourke: 0-3
14 Seamus Callanan: 0-2
15 Noel McGrath: 0-3